President Trump is engaged in a precarious high-wire act, balancing his administration’s hopes for a landmark trade deal with China against the long-standing U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security. This balancing act has been made infinitely more difficult by a direct request from Beijing for the U.S. to “oppose” Taiwanese independence.
On one side of the wire is the allure of a major economic victory that Trump could trumpet as a signature achievement. On the other side is the risk of alienating a democratic partner, undermining U.S. credibility, and destabilizing a critical region of the world. A misstep in either direction could have severe consequences.
The Chinese demand to shift U.S. policy from “not supporting” to “opposing” independence is designed to force Trump’s hand. Beijing is betting that the president’s focus on economic outcomes will lead him to lean in their direction, even if it means sacrificing a key element of U.S. security strategy.
This high-wire act has been made even more perilous by the administration’s own actions. The willingness to use national security tools as leverage in trade talks has blurred the lines between economic and strategic policy, making it harder to maintain a firm footing.
Ultimately, the administration will have to decide which is more important: a short-term economic gain or a long-term strategic interest. The choice it makes will not only determine the fate of Taiwan but will also reveal a great deal about the priorities and principles guiding American foreign policy in a new era of superpower competition.