China’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan statements extends far beyond tourism advisories, encompassing a comprehensive economic pressure campaign that targets multiple sectors of the Japanese economy. The potential restriction of rare earth exports, which are vital to automotive production and various other industries, represents a particularly potent form of leverage that Beijing has successfully wielded against even the United States during the Trump administration.
The immediate trigger was Takaichi’s declaration that Chinese military action against Taiwan could represent a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially necessitating Japanese military involvement. This statement, made during what the Prime Minister described as sincere responses to specific hypothetical questions, crossed a red line for Beijing, which views such declarations as violations of the spirit if not the letter of long-standing diplomatic agreements between the two nations.
Tourism represents the most visible component of China’s response, with travel advisories citing alleged safety concerns for Chinese nationals in Japan. The economic modeling suggests this could cost Japan $11.5 billion and reduce economic growth by 0.3 percentage points. Chinese visitors numbered over 8 million in the first ten months of this year, comprising 23% of all international arrivals, making this market segment crucial to Japan’s tourism-dependent economy.
Cultural exchanges have also become casualties of the diplomatic dispute. The postponement of Japanese movie releases in China, the cancellation of comedy festival performances in Shanghai, and the broader chill in people-to-people exchanges all signal a deepening rift that extends beyond government-to-government relations. These actions follow a pattern established during the 2012 island dispute, when Chinese protesters targeted Japanese businesses and group tours were cancelled for extended periods.
The path to resolution remains unclear as both governments face domestic political constraints. International relations expert Sheila A. Smith observes that leaders on both sides cannot afford to appear weak before their respective domestic audiences. Meanwhile, China’s foreign ministry continues to demand retraction of what it terms “erroneous remarks” and explicit reaffirmation of Japan’s commitment to the “One China” principle, something Tokyo has carefully avoided since the 1972 normalization of relations, instead offering only to “fully understand and respect” China’s position on Taiwan.