Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made an audacious bet: that a brutal war can breed a lasting peace. On Sunday, he publicly wagered that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah has created a unique, albeit violent, opportunity to secure peace agreements with both Lebanon and Syria.
The bet appears to be paying off first with Syria. The collapse of the Assad regime, a consequence of the shifting regional power dynamics, has brought a new government to the negotiating table with Israel. A Syrian official has even suggested that a final settlement on security issues could be reached by the end of the year.
In Lebanon, the wager is that by weakening Hezbollah, the Lebanese state will be forced to become a more responsible actor. Israel is continuing to apply military pressure, while the U.S. ups the diplomatic ante. The Lebanese government has responded by initiating the process of disarming the militia.
Netanyahu explained his high-stakes philosophy to his cabinet. “The possibility of peace… was not even imagined before our recent operations,” he said, justifying his bet that military action could yield diplomatic rewards. He confirmed “some progress” in the Syrian talks.
The early returns on this audacious bet are promising. Syria is negotiating a demilitarized zone, a key Israeli demand. Lebanon has committed to disarming Hezbollah in the south, a move that would fundamentally alter the security landscape. Netanyahu’s wager may yet prove to be a winning one.